Donald Trump has received a second impeachment. Will your opponents win? Does not matter. Nathaniel Rakich, a notable statistician, claims that 52% of Americans support Donald Trump if he immediately leaves power, while 42% think otherwise. It is based on nine studies he dissected. You did the addition and subtraction, and those are the averages you got. I suspect the shots are there.
The problem is, it’s not about statistics, it’s about beliefs, and many people are willing to kill or die for what they believe. They also believe everything: they believe in aliens who visit us often and are committed to kidnapping the unwary people. They believe in paranormal phenomena, including ghosts and güija. They believe in the uniqueness and genuine character of their gods, such as the Hindu goddess Durga who has multiple arms and rides a lion, or as the holy spirit of the Christians, represented by a dove that is part of the maximal triad of that religion. . They believe in the zodiac, astrology, spiritualism and all sorts of bizarre superstitions, especially when preached by a “charismatic” person. For example Donald Trump.
Democrats, in general (minus 18%), and thus a large part of the independents, are convinced that there was no fraud in the November 3, 2020 election. But a remarkable percentage of Republicans (62%) think that tens of thousands of the dead, or that millions of undocumented migrants went to the polls, or that the machines changed the results, or that the ballots were changed by some bad officials.
While Trump eventually accepted Biden’s win, he did not (and never will) say there was no fraud. I don’t even know if he really believes it. Sometimes I think so, but sometimes I assume the opposite. In any case, admitting that he lied would be a bucket of cold water to his followers. (Although now they would say he did it to avoid a massacre, or because he was threatened by African-American congresswoman Maxine Waters, or because of some variant of a conspiracy theory.)
He hasn’t even dared to embrace Tucker Carlson’s (Fox News) thesis, much more intelligent, but highly debatable. The presenter Carlson claims – in his eagerness to defend Trump – that there was “fraud,” but it happened before the election and after, and consisted of the personal attack on Trump from the moment he took office, to every Republican measure. , or all of his appointments, without even granting him the 100 days of grace supposedly granted to the new White House tenants.
In reality, as usual in the US, the elections were clean and transparent, but passionate. This has been the case since George Washington left power in 1797, the first and only president to whom the Tyrians and Trojans paid tribute. From then on, as Spaniards often say in their colloquial language, “a great cocoa was made” and the same thing happens every two years, or every four.
The big difference is that the defeated candidate claims to have been the victim of fraud for the first time, and a large number of his party’s voters believe it at first glance, without wondering why 60 courts, including Republican judges had unanimously rejected claims for a complete lack of evidence. On the other hand, a large number of misguided people went to the capital at President Trump’s request to rectify the Democrats’ treacherous behavior.
They were the frequent version of the subject that appeared in a Washington city pizza parlor, armed with an assault rifle, to “free” some child victims of the perversion and cruelty of the Democrats. Hoax who started shooting QAnon, a far-right group also credited with creating the “deep state” or “deep state” conspiracy theory that, theoretically, made presidential life impossible for Donald Trump.
What happened in the Capitol on January 6 will have very serious economic and political consequences. The economics have to do with the internal stability of the country. The US dollar is the currency of 80% of international transactions, in part because of the trust generated by reflecting every four years on the peaceful and organized transfer of authority since the late 18th century. That real festival of democracy has been replaced by a Third World spectacle of armed guards, barbed wire and ferocious dogs.
The political consequences are of a different nature and have to do with the character of the “head of the free world” that the country achieved after World War II and the victory over the USSR in the Cold War. The US was the only superpower left after the fight. That triumph is contested today by the images of the conquest of the capital by an aggressive mob of criminals. Can Joe Biden and Kamala Harris restore America’s image? Hopefully, but that remains to be seen.