The COVID-19 variant identified in England last month could pose a higher risk of causing death, although data is limited, according to one of the government’s scientific advisory groups, ITV political editor Robert Peston said on Twitter on Friday.
Early evidence suggests that the coronavirus variant that appeared in Britain could be more deadly, said Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
“In addition to the faster spread, it now also appears that there is some evidence that the new variant – the variant that was first identified in London and the South East – could be associated with a higher degree of mortality,” he said. said Johnson.
“To a large extent, the impact of this new variant means that the NHS is under such intense pressure.”
Although the new variant is more contagious, British heads of health and science have said so far that there is no evidence that it is more lethal or has caused more serious diseases.
However, Peston said the government’s Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats (Nervtag) concluded that “it may be a little more lethal than the existing strain”.
He quoted Neil Ferguson, a professor at Imperial College and a member of the Nervtag, as saying, “It is a realistic possibility that the new UK variant will increase the risk of death, but there is considerable uncertainty.”
No one was immediately available for comment from the UK Department of Health, which covers Nervtag.
The statement quoted by Peston establishes a 1.3 times increased risk of death with the variant, but also pointed out that only some types of testing could specify which variant of the virus a patient contracted.
“The big warning is that we only know what strain people have been infected with for about 8% of deaths,” Peston was quoted as saying by Ferguson, citing other limitations on available data.
Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, told the BBC that the evidence of lethality “is not yet strong”.
He said: “I want to point out that there is a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get precise control over it, but he is obviously concerned that it has an increase in mortality as well as a increase in transmissibility. “
The new variant seems to be about 30% more deadly.
For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the old variant, 10 of them might be expected to die. But it increases to about 13 with the new variant.
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