The coronavirus pandemic may no longer spread exponentially in the UK, according to government data suggesting the country’s third blockade is working.
The official estimate of the “R rate” – which measures the number of people to whom each infected person transmits the virus – fell between 0.8 and 1, the results published on Friday showed. When R is above 1, the virus spreads exponentially. Last week, the R rate was estimated at between 1.2 and 1.3.
The government said the case rates remained “dangerously high” and urged the public to abide by the blocking rules.
“There is a small minority that doesn’t, a small minority that breaks the rules and doesn’t think it matters,” Environmental Secretary George Eustice told Times Radio. “We can see that it matters if you look at the pressure on hospitals right now.”
However, the data will provide welcome news to the government of Boris Johnson, who was forced to put the country in a deadlock in early January after a new highly infectious strain of the disease broke out.
Decrease rates
Figures from the Department of Health show that the estimated rate of R fell in all parts of England last week. In London, it fell between 0.7 and 0.9, suggesting that the disease is clearly receding in the capital, where hospitals are still under intense pressure. London Mayor Sadiq Khan on Friday reiterated his call on the government to tighten regulations.
Estimates for the R rate match results from other sources. Earlier on Friday, statistics suggested the number of people in England infected with Covid-19 fell slightly in the week to January 16th.
Covid infection rates in England are falling for the first time in a month
The Johnson administration wants to start lifting restrictions once it has vaccinated 15 million of the most vulnerable people and their caregivers. But the prime minister said on Thursday that the quick-spread version could mean blocking measures are needed in the summer.
Caution
Documents released Friday by the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies show that there are precautionary measures even with the R rate below 1. According to a document dated January 6, scientists expect the prevalence of the virus to decline more slowly than in during the first blockade last spring even though R remains below 1 until mid-February.
As a result, hospital occupancy is likely to be at or above current levels in mid-February, he said. At the time, there were nearly 32,000 coronavirus patients in UK hospitals, according to government data, a figure that was already about a third higher than the peak of the first wave last April.
Officials have repeatedly said that cases are expected to reach the plateau and fall into the current deadlock long before the rate of hospitalizations and daily deaths shows a significant improvement.
(Updates with comments from Eustice, Khan from the fourth paragraph)