UK health experts have advice for the US on combating mutants

LONDON – Health experts warn that even with restrictions, the US is likely to fight to reduce the spread of a highly infectious variant of coronavirus, stressing the importance of taking aggressive action immediately to protect as many people as possible.

The variant, discovered in the UK and known as B.1.1.7., Has an unusually large number of mutations and is associated with a more efficient and faster transmission.

There is no evidence that the mutant strain is associated with more severe disease outcomes. However, because it is more transmissible, other people may become infected and this could lead to more serious cases, hospitalizations and deaths.

Scientists first detected this mutation in September. The variant of concern has since been detected in at least 44 countries, including the United States, which has reported its presence in 12 states.

Last week, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned that the model trajectory of the US variant “shows a rapid growth at the beginning of 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March”.

The forecast comes as Britain struggles to control the impact of its exponential growth.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced blockades in England on January 5, instructing people to “stay home” as most schools, bars and restaurants have been ordered to close. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have introduced similar measures.

The restrictions, which are expected to remain in effect in England until at least mid-February, have been introduced to try to reduce pressure on the nation’s already stressed hospitals amid rising Covid admissions.

Government figures released on Thursday said Britain had 37,892 new infections with 1,290 deaths. A day earlier, the United Kingdom had a record number of Covid deaths, when data showed that another 1,820 people died within 28 days of a positive Covid test.

Dr. Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist at Queen Mary University in London, pointed out that from the British response it was clear that if aggressive measures were not taken immediately, “the variant would spread rapidly geographically and increase in frequency in places where established in community. “

Gurdasani quoted the findings of a closely monitored study by researchers at Imperial College London that showed “no evidence of a decline” in Covid rates between January 6 and January 15, despite the fact that England is blocked. , suggesting that, even with restrictions, it is difficult to contain this effectively due to higher transmissibility. “

Researchers in the study, released on Thursday, warned that UK health services would remain under “extreme pressure” and the cumulative death toll would rise rapidly unless the prevalence of the virus in the community was substantially reduced.

“All this means that the isolation window is very short. Given the lower active surveillance in the US, the variant could have spread more than anticipated, and the content policy must reflect this,” Gurdasani said.

“This means strict isolation efforts not only if the variant has been identified, but in all regions where it could have spread. And active surveillance with contact tracking to identify all possible cases, while maintaining restrictions. strict rules for breaking transmission chains “.

To date, the UK has recorded the fifth highest number of confirmed Covid infections and associated deaths in the world.

On his second day in office, President Joe Biden announced drastic measures to combat the virus, including the establishment of a Covid testing board to increase testing, address supply shortfalls and direct funds to affected minority communities.

Biden said the executive’s orders showed that “Help is on the way.” He also warned that it would take months “to turn this around”.

“The key to all of this is to reduce interpersonal interactions, and the strategy needs to be broadly the same as what happened before, what worked elsewhere, and then some,” said Simon Clarke, an associate professor of cell microbiology at University of Reading.

Clarke said U.S. states should consider reducing the number of people in retail or leisure environments, for example, and may need to close bars or restrict their opening hours, according to studies showing that the risk of transmission is higher internally.

“None of these things we do to protect ourselves eliminate the risk, none of them make us Covid-proof – all it does is reduce our chances of getting infected,” Clarke said.

“The virus has just pushed this with this evolutionary step and it will now be even more difficult to achieve the same level of protection.”

“Everyone wants to believe that vaccines are the solution and will make a huge difference, but it’s not the whole solution,” said Kit Yates, a senior lecturer in mathematical biology at the University of Bath and author of The Math of Life and Death. “

Yates said the new US administration should do everything possible to launch Covid vaccines “as soon as you can” to ease the pressure on health facilities, but insisted that this should be part of a multiple approach.

Other measures that U.S. states should consider, Yates said, include encouraging people to work from home where possible, maintaining physical distance, improving ventilation in the school, getting children to wear masks, and providing support. financial to those who self-isolate and the use of an efficient test and tracing protocols.

“These are boring, horrible, non-pharmaceutical measures that no one wants, but the alternative is too scary to think about.”