Yoshihide Suga
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
Photographer: Kiyoshi Ota / Bloomberg
An increase in coronavirus cases in Japan has hit Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga from time to time with strong public support, increasing the risk of him being replaced by the ruling party ahead of the October elections.
Suga enjoyed some of the highest approval ratings for a new prime minister in September, when the ruling Liberal Democratic Party installed him as leader. But as the number of polls increases as coronavirus cases increase, questions arise as to whether it could join the long list of forced Japanese prime ministers after short periods.
“They are likely to try to vote for a more popular leader in the September party leadership election,” said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo, adding that “many LDP lawmakers” were concerned about their prospects under the Suga banner. . “The party leader is facing the lower house elections.”
Suga cabinet support fell 7 percentage points from 33% last month in a poll published by the Mainichi newspaper on Saturday, compared to 57% of respondents who said they did not support the cabinet. New polls published by Yomiuri and TV Asahi also showed declines.
Suga is due to give a policy speech after the opening of the new parliamentary session at 2pm on Monday, when he could establish plans to add penalties to a law on virus management. The session gives the prime minister a chance to try to regain support for his government ahead of a crucial decision on the continuation and organization of the Tokyo Olympics, an event that will begin in July that he said he is determined to organize despite growing opposition.
The 72-year-old Suga came to power, promising to maintain his extremely light monetary position and other policies that helped his predecessor, Shinzo Abe, become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister. At the same time, the farmer’s son has been paying more attention than his boss for a long time to issues related to pocket cards, such as mobile phone charges. He presented a dual strategy to strengthen the economy while containing the virus.
Continuity commitment helped send the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to a all-time high in dollar terms in January, even as the economy retreated from its worst recession. But public opinion began to worsen rapidly after Suga blocked a group of scholars who criticized Abe’s policies from an academic advisory body, and an investigation into the campaign funding confused several of the former prime minister’s first aides.
At the same time, the government has been increasingly criticized for maintaining its “Go-To” travel campaign to boost domestic spending, despite concerns that it would help spread the virus. Suga resisted growing calls from regional leaders to declare a state of emergency – reviving a debate that led to a decline in Abe’s popularity before he resigned due to a return to chronic illness.
Suga finally declared an emergency for the Tokyo region on January 7, after several announcements of record infection, a move that about 80% of respondents to a survey by public broadcaster NHK said was too late. Last week, he added other areas, including the Osaka region, putting a portion of the country that accounts for more than half of the nation’s economic output under restrictions.
Enlargement has also strengthened the likelihood that the world’s third-largest economy will slip back in this quarter. Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura said on Thursday that the current area could be further expanded, depending on infections.
Nishiki Square in Kyoto, January 14. The government has been increasingly criticized for maintaining its “Go-To” travel campaign, despite concerns that it is spreading the virus.
Photographer: Kosuke Okahara / Bloomberg
“There was no crisis management strategy under the Abe administration,” said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor at Nihon University in Tokyo. “He stayed with this line and paid too much attention to the economy and other factors.”
To make matters worse, Japan does not expect mass vaccinations to begin until February. And media polls show a growing consensus on the Tokyo Olympics, already pushed forward by a year to July 2021 due to the pandemic, should either be delayed again or canceled altogether. “Something Suga promised he wouldn’t allow.”
The prime minister does not have much time to turn things around. Japanese law requires lower house elections until October. Suga is serving the last year of Abe’s three-year term and will have to get LDP support to stay after September.
Suga’s party has held power for all but about four in the last 65 years, in part due to often disorganized opposition. A the merger of the two largest opposition groups last year did not support enough support to pose a serious threat, although the ruling coalition could face a small majority.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, one of the two opponents of the PLD, Suga defeated to secure the party’s leadership position, told BS Asahi on Sunday that he intends to run for office again this year. Other possible candidates to replace Suga as LDP leader include Nishimura, chief secretary of the Katsunobu Kato cabinet and administrative reform minister Taro Kono.
However, these current cabinet members could also be blamed for government failures, Iwai said. This could even lead the LDP to turn to an old master: Abe.
“Because there is no one else, people could start talking about bringing Abe back,” Iwai said. “It’s a sad state.”
– With the assistance of Andrew Davis, Erica Yokoyama and Lily Nonomiya
(Updates with new surveys in the fourth paragraph.)