The coronavirus pandemic will shorten life expectancy at birth for Americans by about a year due to the more than 336,000 deaths caused by the disease in the United States in 2020, according to new research.
Researchers at the University of Southern California and Princeton project that life expectancy will be reduced by 1.13 years to 77.48 years, according to their study, which was published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
This is the lowest estimated life expectancy since 2003 – and marks the biggest one-year decline in at least 40 years, according to Science Daily.
The study found that declining longevity is likely to be even more pronounced among minority populations.
For blacks, researchers project that life expectancy will be shortened by 2.10 years to 72.78 years, and for Latinos, by 3.05 years to 78.77 years, according to research.
Among whites, the projected decline is 0.68 years to a life expectancy of 77.84 years – while, overall, the difference in life expectancy between blacks and whites is expected to increase by 40%, from 3.6 at more than five years.
“Our study examines the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on nationwide life expectancy and the consequences for marginalized groups,” said study author Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral fellow at USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology.
“The disproportionate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of black and Latino Americans is probably related to their greater exposure through work or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving poorer medical care, leading to more infections. and to poorer results ”. she added.
The coronavirus appears to have eliminated many of the gains made in narrowing the 2006 black-and-white life expectancy gap, Science Daily reported.
Latinos, who experienced lower mortality than whites, would see their survival advantage of more than three years over whites reduced to less than a year.
“The huge drop in life expectancy for Latinos is particularly shocking, given that Latinos have lower rates than black and white populations in most chronic conditions that are risk factors for COVID-19,” said the study’s co-author. Noreen Goldman, professor of demography and public affairs at Princeton.
“The good general health of Latinos before the pandemic, which should have protected them from COVID-19, revealed the risks associated with social and economic disadvantages,” she said.
The study estimated life expectancy at birth and age 65 at 2020 for the total US population by race and ethnicity.
The researchers used four death scenarios – one in which the pandemic did not occur and three that include COVID-19 mortality projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment, a global independent health research center at the University of Washington.
“The greater reductions in life expectancy for black and Latino populations result in part from a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups,” Goldman said.
These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger people who may not be perceived as at increased risk, she added.
The projected decline in pandemic life expectancy is about 10 times greater than the declines observed in recent years.
During the flu pandemic of 1918, life expectancy was reduced by an extraordinary seven to 12 years.