A new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences projects that Covid-19 will reduce US life expectancy in 2020 by 1.13 years, with a disproportionate number of deaths among black and Latin American populations. When combined with provisional estimates of US death rates for the first half of the year, the data show a clear increase in the mortality rate as the pandemic has taken hold in the nation.
“The estimated reductions for black and Latino populations are three to four times greater than those for whites. Therefore, Covid-19 is expected to reverse over 10 years of progress in reducing the black-and-white life expectancy gap and reduce the previous Latin mortality benefit by more than 70%, “according to study researchers Theresa Andrasfay of at the University of Southern California and Noreen Goldman of Princeton University’s Office of Population Research.
“Black and Latin Americans have experienced a disproportionate burden of Covid-19 morbidity and mortality, reflecting persistent structural inequalities that increase the risk of exposure to Covid-19 and the risk of mortality for those infected,” the study added.
Prior to the pandemic, the United States had made steady progress in life expectancy, although it had slowed in recent years.
But the pandemic has slowed all this progress and also widened the gap between Black-White life expectancy.
“It is estimated that black and Latino populations experience decreases in life expectancy at birth of 2.10 and 3.05 years, respectively, both being several times lower than the reduction of 0.68 years for whites. These projections imply an increase of almost 40% in black −The difference in white life expectancy, from 3.6 years to over 5 years, thus eliminating the progress made in reducing this differential since 2006 “, the study added.
CDC: The US mortality rate rose significantly in the second quarter
New data from the National Center for Health Statistics suggests that Covid-19 caused a significant increase in mortality in the United States.
The age-adjusted mortality rate was 769 per 100,000 in the first quarter of 2020 and increased to 840 in the second quarter. In comparison, the mortality rate for the second quarter of 2019 was 702 per 100,000, NCHS said.
Although the report shows that mortality has increased significantly in 2020, it provides an incomplete snapshot of the pandemic, as data are currently available for only the first two quarters.
Last week, CDC statisticians said that Covid-19 is likely to be the third leading cause of death in 2020. They estimated that there were between 316,252 and 431,792 excess deaths throughout 2020.
Heart disease is the leading cause of death, and cancer is the second leading cause of death in the United States.
These estimates are based on all death records received and processed by the NCHS as of 27 November 2020.
A multi-year effect
The Andrasfay and Goldman study used data from the Census Bureau and data on actual and projected deaths due to the pandemic at the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment at the University of Washington and the National Center for Health Statistics. They also used various models and estimates for mortality rates.
“Our average estimate indicates a reduction in US life expectancy at birth of 1.13 years to 77.48 years, lower than in any year since 2003,” they said.
“This impact is about 10 times greater than the worrying annual decline a few years ago, which was largely attributed to drug overdoses, other external causes and respiratory and cardiovascular disease,” the study added.
The United States is already behind other countries rich in life expectancy, and the pandemic will worsen it.
“It is estimated that the US reduction in life expectancy by 2020 will exceed that of most other high-income countries, indicating that the United States – which already had a life expectancy below that of all other high-income developed countries before the pandemic – will see life expectancy fall further behind his colleagues, “the study said.
The effects of the pandemic will last long after 2020.
“Some reduction in life expectancy may persist beyond 2020, due to the continuing mortality of Covid-19 and the long-term health, social and economic impact of the pandemic,” the study added.
Maggie Fox and Jessica Firger contributed to this report.