ATLANTA (AP) – Typically, it’s the first by-elections of a president that rearrange the White House’s political approach and priorities. For President-elect Joe Biden, his most defining congressional election comes before he takes office.
Two run-offs Tuesday in Georgia will decide which party controls the Senate and, thus, how far the new president can legislate on issues like the pandemic, health care, taxation, energy and the environment. For a politician who has sold himself to Americans as a uniter and a seasoned legislative broker, the Georgia election will help determine if he can live up to his bills.
“It’s not like you can’t get anything done in the minority or get everything done in the majority, but having the gavel, having that managerial control can be the difference in success or failure for an administration,” said Jim Manley, once a top assistant to former Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid, who held his position opposite current Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
Both Georgia Democrats Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock must win on Tuesday to divide the Senate 50-50. Vice President-elect Kamala Harris, as President of the Senate, would provide the electoral position needed to determine control.
Certainly, even a closely-divided Democratic Senate wouldn’t give Biden everything he wants. Senate rules still require 60 votes to advance most major legislation; for now there are not enough Democrats willing to change that demand. So, regardless of Georgia’s results, Biden will have to win over Republicans in a Senate where a bipartisan group of more centrist senators see their stock rise.
A Democratic Senate would still pave an easier way for Biden’s nominees to key positions, especially in the federal judiciary, and give Democrats control of committees and much of the action on the ground. Conversely, a Senate led by McConnell would almost certainly deny Biden major legislative victories, as it did late in President Barack Obama’s tenure, by preventing his agenda from even getting an up-or-down vote.
Biden’s team is well aware of the commitment. The president-elect will travel to Atlanta on Monday, on the eve of the second round, to campaign with Ossoff and Warnock for the second time in three weeks. Biden’s campaign aides helped raise millions to strengthen the party infrastructure that helped Biden become the first Democratic presidential candidate since 1992 to carry the state. Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will campaign in Savannah on Sunday.
On his last visit, Biden called Republican sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler “roadblocks” and urged Georgians to “vote for two US senators who know how to say the word ‘yes’ and not just’ no.”
Congressional makeup makes up every administration, but perhaps more so for Biden, who spent 36 years in the Senate, plus eight as Obama’s vice president and top congressional liaison. Biden leaned on that resume to profile himself as a consensus builder for the country; he also criticized the increased use of executive measures by presidents to bypass Congress and insisted it would be different in his presidency.
Even some Republicans are hopeful. Michael Steel, once a top adviser to Republican House Speaker John Boehner, a protagonist of Obama along with McConnell, blamed Obama’s Capitol Hill problems for his personal approach to his fellow politicians. Conversely, Steel said, “President-elect Biden is a legislator by profession, by training, by instinct, by experience in a way that former President Obama was not.”
Steel predicted Biden and McConnell, two former colleagues, may find “common ground” in infrastructure and immigration policies that have caused problems for multiple administrations. Steel noted that a handful of Republican senators, including Marco Rubio from Florida and Rob Portman from Ohio, could face tough reelection battles in 2022, potentially making them eager to strike deals that could bring them into campaigns.
Still, there’s no indication that McConnell would allow consideration of Biden’s other top priorities, most notably an extension of the Affordable Care Act’s “ public option ” of 2010, which passed without a single Republican vote when Democrats both chambers on Capitol Hill checked. Biden’s proposed tax increases for corporations and the richest Americans are also likely dead in a GOP senate.
Biden needs his negotiating skills to navigate the left flank of his own party as well. While progressives say they’ve lowered their expectations of what’s possible – even under a Democratic senate – they still intend to pressure Biden.
Larry Cohen, chairman of Our Revolution, the offshoot of Senate Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential bid, said progressives will urge Democrats in Congress to use the “budget reconciliation” process to get around the 60-year-old vote threshold. the Senate. Cohen argued that tactics could be used to achieve long-awaited goals, such as ending tax subsidies to fossil fuel companies and enabling the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to negotiate with pharmaceutical companies as a single customer.
Those steps, Cohen noted, could deliver significant savings and generate new revenue, even if Republicans disagree with tax increases.
He also said progressives will push Biden to use executive power. He cited two initiatives that Biden has publicly called for: ending new drilling on federal lands and raising the minimum wage for federal contractors to $ 15 an hour, even if Congress won’t set that floor across the economy. Another progressive priority, canceling student debts under federal loan programs is something Biden hasn’t said if he’d be willing to try unilaterally.
The Democrats’ limited expectations of their own power, even with a potential majority, contradict the exaggerated claims Republicans have used in the Georgia races.
In the words of Perdue and Loeffler, a Democratic Senate would ‘stamp’ a ‘socialist agenda’, from ‘ending private insurance’ and ‘expanding the Supreme Court’ to widely passing a ‘green new deal’ that would spend trillions and taxes would increase every household in the US by thousands of dollars a year. In addition to misrepresenting the policy preferences of Biden and most Democratic senators, that characterization ignores the reality of Senate selection.
At a campaign stop this week, Ossoff said Perdue’s “ridiculous” attacks “amaze me”. He scoffed at the claim that his policy ideas, which are closely related to Biden, amount to a left-wing outburst. But the challenger agreed with the incumbent on how much Georgia’s runout matters.
“We have too much good work to do,” said Ossoff, “to be stuck in stalemate and obstruction for years to come.”