BRUSSELS (AP) – Negotiators from the European Union and the United Kingdom have been working all night and until Christmas Eve to finalize a trade deal that should avoid a chaotic economic break between the two sides next week.
Trade will change regardless of January 1, when the United Kingdom will leave the single market and the bloc’s customs union. But both sides have worked hard to avoid a nightmare scenario, in which imposing tariffs and taxes would cost billions in trade and hundreds of thousands of jobs and ports potentially so boastful that many goods would struggle to get through. . This possibility was clearly illustrated this week, when a brief French blockade of British trucks in connection with coronavirus problems created chaos in ports, which is still being resolved.
After resolving almost all the remaining points, the negotiators analyzed hundreds of pages of legal text on Thursday, which should become the plan for a post-Brexit relationship.
As in most of the nine-month negotiations, the issue of EU fishing fleets in British waters proved to be the most insoluble and divisible, with negotiators still discussing quotas for some individual species as dawn came. and they came.
However, sources on both sides said the long and difficult negotiations were about to end as negotiators, buried at the EU headquarters in Brussels with a pile of pizza, worked to deliver the text to their leaders on Thursday.
Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said there appeared to be “some sort of last-minute hook” on the fish, but that was not surprising. He said he expected announcements of a London-Brussels agreement “later today”.
The agreement will then go to the 27 EU nations seeking unanimous approval, as well as the blessing of the EU and British parliaments. He is expected to obtain these approvals.
The British pound, the pound sterling, rose in anticipation of a deal, up 0.5% against the dollar to just under $ 1.36.
It has been 4 and a half years since the British voted 52% -48% to leave the EU to – in the words of the Brexiteers campaign slogan – “take control” of Britain’s borders and laws.
It took more than three years of fighting before Britain left the bloc’s political structures on January 31. Negotiating how to separate economies that were closely linked as part of the EU’s single market for goods and services took even longer.
Despite apparent progress, key aspects of the future relationship between the bloc of 27 nations and its former member remain uncertain. However, the relationship between the UK and the EU, which is mutually dependent, and the £ 675 billion ($ 918 billion), is left on a much stronger footing than a disruptive split without agreement.
If an agreement is announced, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will be able to claim that he has fulfilled his promise that brought him a resounding electoral victory a year ago: “Achieve Brexit”.
Even with an agreement, trade between the UK and the EU will face customs controls and other barriers on 1 January. But an agreement would avoid the more disastrous effects of tariffs and taxes. The UK withdrew from the EU on 31 January and an economic transition period expires on 31 December.
Johnson has always insisted that Britain will “thrive” even if no agreement is reached, and Britain must trade with the EU under the terms of the World Trade Organization on 1 January.
But his government has acknowledged that a chaotic exit could lead to blockades in UK ports, a temporary shortage of goods and rising commodity prices. Tariffs will apply to many UK exports, including 10% to cars and more than 40% to lamb, affecting the UK economy as it struggles to recover from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
In recent days, Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have been increasingly involved in talks, speaking by telephone in an attempt to unblock negotiations that have dragged on for months, hampered by pandemics and the two sides “opposing views on what Brexit entails.
Rumors of a pre-Christmas trade deal have surfaced in recent days based on progress on the main unresolved issues: fair competition, the settlement of future disputes and fishing.
The EU has long feared that Britain will undermine the social, environmental and aid rules of the bloc state in order to gain an unfair advantage with its exports to the EU. Britain said compliance with EU rules would undermine its sovereignty.
Finally, a compromise was reached on these issues of “fair competition”, leaving the minor but highly symbolic economic problem of fish to be the final sticking point. EU maritime nations are seeking to maintain access to Britain’s waters where they have been fishing for a long time, but Britain insists it must exercise control as an “independent coastal state”.
A huge gap between the two sides in terms of fishing was gradually reduced until it finally appeared easy.
Johnson’s large Conservative majority in parliament should ensure that the Brexit trade deal passes, but any compromises will be criticized by his party’s Brexit supporters. The party’s Eurosceptic European research group said it would scrutinize any agreement “to ensure that its provisions truly protect the sovereignty of the United Kingdom after we exit the transition period later this year”.
The European Parliament has warned that it is now too late for it to approve the agreement before 1 January, but an agreement could be provisionally set up and approved by EU lawmakers in January.
Companies on both sides are demanding an agreement that would save tens of billions in costs.
While both sides would suffer economically from the failure to secure a trade agreement, most economists believe the UK would have a bigger blow because it is smaller and more dependent on trade with the EU than vice versa.
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Lawless reported from London.
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