1 Introduction
The United States is a hot mess right now. Well, maybe I should say common cold mess. The polar air has invaded everything except Florida and the desert of the Southwest. A powerful winter storm in the center of the country has led to advisories stretching from Washington’s Canadian border to the Mexican border in Texas. At least 33 of the contiguous 48 states have some sort of winter warning, watch, or advice in effect on Saturday.
And of course that also applies to New Jersey. As we’ve covered all week, our next storm system is not incredibly powerful or well-organized. And it certainly won’t be a huge snow maker for New Jersey. But it will achieve a specific temperature profile conducive to an icy mix of sleet and sleet. And even a light icing of ice is enough to make the conditions very slippery and treacherous.
We’re also tracking two more storm systems targeting New Jersey next week. There have been some interesting developments in the latest model runs.
2.) Timing
-Get started… Winter mixed precipitation comes from southwest to northeast between late Saturday morning (10am) and early afternoon (2pm)
—Brunt … The heaviest precipitation, and the greatest threat to icy conditions, will be from late Saturday afternoon (3pm) to late evening (10pm)
-End… Bad weather conditions should gradually improve on Sunday morning (6am to 12pm)
3.) Accumulations
-Snow… Up to an inch possible (although unlikely), especially in the far north.
-Ice… About one-tenth of an inch for most of the state. Less to the far north and along the direct coast.
-Rain… There can be up to 0.30 inches of rain, especially along the immediate coast.
4.) Effects
Ice cream is a nasty business. Especially black ice would be the worst scenario here. Remember, that looks, feels, smells and tastes like regular liquid rain until it hits a frost surface. Then it immediately freezes to solid ice. Instant ice rink.
In wet snow and / or ice, untreated surfaces become very slippery very quickly, increasing the risk of car accidents, skidding and falling injuries. Vehicles encased in a glaze of ice can be difficult to even enter. Heavy ice can bring down branches, trees and power lines, increasing the risk of power outages over the weekend.
Whatever falls from the sky, it will be a bleak and unpleasant period of weather. It is difficult to advise on “safe” or “good” travel times, as conditions can vary from city to city and even minute to minute. Really, if you don’t have to be on the road, it’s a good day to just stay home and keep it nice and warm and dry.
Wind and coastal floods are not I like to say this weekend.
5.) Advice
A winter weather advisory has been issued for 17 NJ counties, due to the threat of sleet and icing over the weekend.
-8 am Saturday to 7 am Sunday … Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties.
—1pm Saturday to 10am Sunday … Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Somerset and Union counties.
6.) The next storm
The same storm system that causes dangerous wind chills and up to a foot of snow for the Southern Plains will be heading our way early next week. It appears that Monday, between late Monday evening and the first half of Tuesday, we will be dealing with a small piece of precursor energy.
Now here’s the interesting thing. Models have followed the assault course further west (inland) and north. Not only does that limit the storm’s coastal impact, it also places New Jersey on the warm side of the storm. That means the predominant precipitation type looks now just rain
I wouldn’t hang my hat on that forecast because the weather could very well turn to the cold side. (Previous runs have suggested both double-digit snow totals and a half-inch of ice accretion in New Jersey.)
In any case, it is a sign that this prediction is still low confidence and quite complicated. Remember that chaos theory dictates that the weather forecasting game works best when we hit it by storm. We’ll have better control of the next one when the weekend ice storm is over.
7.) The next next storm
The grand finale of this hyperactive period of weather is still scheduled for late next week, in the Thursday through Friday timeframe.
Guess what. Like the Tuesday storm, it tends to be northwest and therefore rainier. Still, the current model consensus paints some snow accumulation at the outset. And with 5 days to go to the first flakes / drops, it can certainly slide back.
I remain hopeful that starting next weekend we will get a break from the constant onslaught of major storm systems. Maybe we’ll even see a short (big) warm-up at the end of next week. However, if you are looking for a long lasting warm-up, you will unfortunately have to wait until March.
Stay warm, be smart and stay safe this weekend. Unless “things” really hit the fan when the ice storm hits, my next weather blog update will come Sunday morning.
Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist at Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest weather forecast and real-time weather updates.