Surrounding the Earth 16 times a day, 250 miles up, space stations are among humanity’s most impressive achievements. The International Space Station (ISS) is a partnership between NASA and Roscosmos in Russia, with contributions from the United States from Canada, Japan, Europe and other countries. However, its future is far from clear and depends on the decisions that will be made this year.
About 75 percent of ISS costs are borne by the United States at an annual cost of $ 3 billion to $ 4 billion. Russia launched the first components of the ISS in 1998, and by 2010, the ISS had become fully operational. The plan was for the ISS to last 15-20 years, at which time it will be replaced. It didn’t have to be that way.
The ISS has cost more than $ 150 billion, five times the combined budgets of NASA and Roscosmos, so replacing it would be a huge undertaking, probably stifling funds for Earth observation, human visits to the Moon or Mars, or deep space exploration. The Trump administration’s “Artemis” response was to transfer Earth-orbiting space stations from government to the private sector and to focus government spending on a monthly orbiting space station and a monthly human landing. Given that several countries are already agreeing to invest in the US lunar space station, it is difficult to see how these countries would also invest in a $ 100 billion replacement ISS. So, if the Artemis program is not delayed, the financial burden of a new ISS would return to the United States.
Extending the life of the ISS has been made easier by the design of its components, which make it easier to remove worn parts, such as solar panels. Consequently, NASA, Roscosmos and international partners have agreed to keep it operational until 2028 (8-10 years longer than its lifespan) and maybe until 2030.
The ISS is already 20 years old and – at this age – we should be prepared for surprises: when a slow air leak was discovered, an astronaut initially connected it with his finger, then applied it with tape. . It is not the only time they have kept the air in the station with tape and it is unlikely that this will be the last failure before 2030, not to mention the risk of debris collisions. If there is to be a comparable replacement for the ISS by 2030, then the initial work should start by 2021. If work on a replacement does not start by 2021, then the chances of a comparable station being in operation by 2028/30 it’s shrinking. But there are many more.
The ISS is about to get a huge advertising boost: this year it is planned to shoot parts of two major films there. Universal Studios and NASA have announced that a $ 200 million Tom Cruise thriller will be partially filmed inside the ISS, and Channel One and Roscosmos in Russia have announced that they will be filming one. Millions may soon be amazed by the glamorous scenes aboard the ISS.
Although Roscosmos agreed to continue the ISS until 2028/30, it indicated that if the US closed the US ISS segments, then Russia would separate the Russian segments and use them as an independent or partnered Russian space station. No one in Russia has forgotten that the first space stations were Russian or that the Mir Space Station operated for 14 years before the ISS. The possibility of a space station partnering with Russia remains.
Strong opposition from US defense interests has hampered US-China space cooperation, leading to a 2011 law effectively banning it. Not surprisingly, China has pursued a space program without involvement in the ISS. This includes satellites, lunar and planetary missions and, starting in 2011, China’s own space stations, Tiangong 1 and 2. In 2021, China will begin construction of Tiangong 3, a multi-module station that is beginning to look like the ISS. It should be operational in 2022, include European astronauts and other astronauts, and remain operational long after the ISS.
Assuming that the US does not build an ISS replacement, then America’s main strategy will remain to replace the ISS with private space stations. Several American companies have already started work, although most use ISS as a foundation.
The most important American business building its own station is Axiom Space, which subcontracts launches to companies such as Space X and the construction of modules to Thales Alenia Corp. “Axiom Station” will be a 3-module space station, initially connected to the ISS before separating at the end of 2020. Axiom’s plan is to use one module for operations, another for experiments / manufacturing and a third as a luxury station. Last year, NASA awarded Axiom $ 140 million to help it build its first module. Axiom will host Universal Studios and Tom Cruise this year and will send 3 space tourists, who each paid $ 55 million, for a week aboard the ISS in 2022.
Other companies are behind, including Sierra Nevada Corp., Nano Racks and Bigelow.
Among the most important recent developments in US space policy has been the formation of the US Space Force (USSF). One of its main objectives is to protect US space assets, and it is hard to imagine that the USSF leadership would not consider a military space station. While NASA has long cooperated with the military and while the U.S. military is among the largest owners of satellites, a manned U.S. military space station has not been proposed since the 1960s.
Last year, the Defense Innovation Unit awarded a contract to Sierra Nevada to build an unmanned Orbital Outpost that could house a military crew. The company will use its planned cargo vehicle as a platform from which to build a military outpost. The initial flight of the cargo vehicle to the ISS, attached to the Sierra Nevada spacecraft, is scheduled for 2021. This will obviously lay the groundwork for converting the vehicle into a military space station.
So this year, construction will begin on a new Chinese space station and an American business space station; The Pentagon will begin tracking its first space station and – perhaps – we will know more about any future Russian space station. More importantly, the Biden administration will decide whether there will be a replacement for the ISS, especially since – given the long delivery deadlines – no decision in 2021 is a decision.
Roger Cochetti provides consulting and counseling services in Washington, DC. He was a senior executive at Communications Satellite Corporation (COMSAT) from 1981 to 1994. He also led public policy on the Internet for IBM from 1994 to 2000 and later served as senior vice president and political director for VeriSign and director of policy for IBM. group for CompTIA. He was a member of the State Department’s Advisory Committee on International Communications and Information Policy during the Bush and Obama administrations, testified several times on Internet policy issues, and served on advisory committees to the FTC and various agencies. UN. He is the author of the Mobile Satellite Communications Manual.