Turnover is a fact of life in the NFL. Even though the league added two playoff teams to form a group of 14 teams in 2020, five of the 12 teams that reached the postseason in 2019 did not make a return trip this season. This is a group that includes the 49ers, who were seeded in the NFC and its representatives in the Super Bowl LIV, and the Patriots, who reached the playoffs in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. The Texans, Vikings and Eagles also failed to return in January, two of the three not even getting particularly close.
Let’s try to project what the image of the 2021 playoffs might look like until we reach the end of next season. Let me start with the obvious: it will be wrong. We don’t know who will coach the Eagles or the Texans or if their starting defenders will stay around for another season. In doing so, I predict that there is a small chance that Deshaun Watson or Carson Wentz will be traded with one of their more obvious suitors, such as Dolphins or Jets.
We know the Colts will have a new starting lineup as Philip Rivers announced his retirement on Wednesday, but Drew Brees’ future with the Saints is still up in the air. We don’t even know if fans will be able to cheer on the stadiums in September.
I will build on the facts we know – namely, how each team has evolved in 2020 and what at least 16 games in their program will look like in 2021 – to contribute to educated assumptions about next season’s playoff field. Where I made particularly surprising choices, I tried to provide a historical context for teams that made comparable leaps or similar declines.
Let’s start with the team that is probably the least surprising choice of all, the defending champions:
Jump to a team:
ATL | BAL | BUF | CHI | CLE
DAL | GB | IND | JAX | KC
LAR | MIA | NE | NU | PIT
SF | MARE | TB | ZECE | WSH