Coronavirus pandemic, year two: Here’s what to expect

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Our lives have been turned upside down, the economy is leaking and more than 1.8 million people have died – 350,000 of them in the US, more than any other country in the world.

As a nation, we are exhausted. American hospitals and health workers are overwhelmed. Pain and trauma accumulate. The launch of the vaccine has delayed the program, a new strain of the virus has emerged and experts fear an explosion of new cases and hospitalizations after the holidays.

The next few months will probably be dark and painful. But there is a promise of light on the horizon. With two vaccines approved in the US and more on the way, there is hope for a gradual return to normalcy – whatever it would look like in a post-pandemic world.

Here’s what to expect in this new year.

The next few months will be tough

We’ve had a tough holiday season – and things aren’t expected to get better at least in the coming weeks.

In December alone, we lost more than 77,000 people in the United States. It was the deadliest month of the pandemic so far, and health officials fear that the wave effects of holiday gatherings will soon make things worse.

More than 1.1 million passengers blocked US airports on Monday after Christmas. The desire to connect with loved ones after months could bring another wave of infections and hospitalizations – another obstacle in our long struggle to contain the virus. According to some estimates, 80,000 Americans could die in the next three weeks.
The grinding pandemic has affected many health workers mentally and physically.
“The next few months are going to be awful,” says Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine at George Washington University. “We will lose 3,000, maybe more, people a day, probably by February. And then we should start to see some light.”

Government officials are preparing for dire scenarios. Healthcare workers arrange rooms for sick patients in hallways, hallways and parking lots.

In severely affected southern California, ICUs are at capacity, and officials have extended home orders. Hospitals in Atlanta have exceeded capacity, some people are waiting for days to be hospitalized. The governor of Georgia has opened an overcrowded coronavirus unit at a downtown convention center.

An epidemiologist in Los Angeles said the United States is now beyond waves or surges. “This is a viral tsunami we are experiencing now,” he says.

The launch of the vaccine has been slow

First the good news: the sleeves are rolling all over the country for the highly effective Pfizer and Moderna vaccines.

About 2.8 million people received the first of two doses needed to protect against the virus.

But without a federal mandate for how to administer the vaccine, it is up to states to decide who gets the vaccines and when, creating a confusing mix of rules that vary across the country. The launch was rough.

About 12.4 million doses have been distributed so far, but we have not met the goal of vaccinating 20 million people by January 1.

A pharmacist moves 975 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine into a freezer on December 15, 2020 in Aurora, Colorado.
Experts estimate that the ideal number would be 1 million vaccinations a day. But Dr. Peter Hotez, dean at Baylor College of Medicine, says he’s not sure the United States can do it.

Supply constraints and logistical challenges have complicated the administration of a vaccine at the head of a pandemic that has hit health departments nationwide.

It is a delicate process. Pharmaceutical companies have to produce tens of millions of doses of vaccines, each with specific storage requirements and programs.

For example, both vaccines should be kept at sub-zero temperatures before being thawed in clinics and hospitals. Pfizer should be kept at about minus 75 degrees Celsius – about 50 degrees colder than any vaccine currently used in the United States. In Wisconsin, officials had to drop more than 500 doses of Moderna vaccine after a hospital pharmacist let them sit at room temperature.
Nurse practitioner Kristina Castro is preparing a Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine on December 17, 2020, in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Some states said they did not have enough supplies of Pfizer vaccine, while the manufacturer reported millions of unclaimed doses, which added to the confusion.

First President Joe Biden has pledged to deliver 100 million vaccines in his first 100 days in office. That’s enough for 50 million doses.
Even with delays and questions about who should receive the vaccines first, national infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci is confident that a vaccine will be available to most Americans by April.

Vaccines will not protect people immediately

The availability of two vaccines by 2021 is an amazing achievement when you consider that I just understood this virus a year ago. And it is a hopeful sign that we are close to beating back a plague that has brought the world to its knees.

But the vaccination process will take months and it is still important for everyone to wear masks and social distance until we reach the herd’s immunity – that magic point when so many people are inoculated that the virus has nowhere to spread.

So don’t wear your party shoes yet. For starters, vaccines do not provide instant protection and only take effect after the second dose.

A pharmacist is administering a dose of Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine to a nursing home in the Bronx neighborhood of New York on December 21, 2020.
Both Pfizer and Moderna require two doses at a distance of 21 and 28 days, respectively. In tests, Moderna was 94.1% effective two weeks after the second dose. Pfizer was 95% effective seven days or more after the second dose.

But it is still unclear whether vaccines prevent the spread of the virus. The Pfizer vaccine, for example, is effective in preventing symptomatic and severe diseases. But studies have not looked at whether it prevents anyone from carrying the coronavirus and spreading it to others. It is possible for someone to receive the vaccine, but still be an asymptomatic carrier.

Then the question arises how quickly the vaccines will reach people and how easily they will get them. Misinformation and mistrust about Covid-19 vaccines are spreading on social networks, and recent polls have shown that almost a third of Americans say they will not be vaccinated.

In short, our behavior will further determine the trajectory of this pandemic.

Scientists are alarmed by a new strain of virus

Health experts are rushing to slow the spread of Covid-19 before several strains complicate vaccination efforts.

A new, more contagious variant of the virus circulating in the UK has recently been discovered in Colorado, California and Florida. The new strain spreads faster, but does not appear to be more deadly.

It is unclear how a Colorado man became infected with the new strain because he had no known travel history. This has raised concerns that the variant has spread to the US undetected and that more cases will occur.

People are waiting in line at a coronavirus test and vaccination site on December 30, 2020 in Los Angeles, California.

Pfizer and Moderna are testing their photos to determine if they are effective against the variant.

Some scientists fear that the new variant could be able to overcome the vaccine – at least to some extent.

But many health officials have downplayed concerns that vaccines will not work against the new strain.

“I don’t think it will break the vaccine,” said Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.

But there is hope for herd immunity in 2021

While vaccinations and masks will go a long way in taming a furious pandemic, the improvement will be gradual.

Outbreaks will diminish as vaccines reach most Americans, giving health care workers more breathing space to help the most vulnerable.

“As a nation, we will recover faster if you give the vaccine less work.” say Rochelle Walensky, the new director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
By the end of 2021, Americans hope to see a return to normalcy. Here, people take part in a show at the Civic Theater on November 27, 2020 in Auckland, New Zealand.
Fauci says that April, May, June and July will be the open season for anyone to get vaccinated. And he says the US could return to normal life by early fall if states step in with vaccinations.
Effective immunity will be achieved if about 70% to 85% of the population is vaccinated. Once we reach this threshold, the spread of infections becomes much less likely.

“By the beginning of the fall, we will have enough good immunity for the herd to be able to really return to a strong appearance of normalcy – schools, theaters, sporting events, restaurants,” Fauci said.

Imagine: Americans who go to the movies, go out to listen to live music and meet friends in restaurants, without looking at everyone as a potential threat.

Sounds like heaven.

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