These types of tornadoes are the ones that stay on the ground consistently for an extended period of time, unlike a typical one that can only be on the ground for a few minutes.
The system that will be responsible for these strong storms is currently impacting the Southwest and will make its trek through the Rocky Mountains and pour into the Plains by midweek, allowing for an atmospheric setup conducive to the onset of dangerous storms .
“We have increasingly warmer and more humid air over the Gulf of Mexico that will quickly rise north – those large-scale conditions are quite favorable for severe storms. We think some of the smaller details we often see on more expensive days, especially with a significant tornado potential will also be present, ”said Bill Bunting, head of forecasting operations at the SPC.
“This is a very strong system whose severe storm potential has been monitored as it develops and moves northeast from the plains to the Ohio Valley,” meteorologist Jason Holmes of the NWS office in Birmingham, Alabama told CNN . .
Time out from the storms
The threat of thunderstorms begins Tuesday evening for much of Kansas, Oklahoma and northeast and central Texas.
However, the greatest risk is likely to be during the nighttime hours of Tuesday and continue until Wednesday morning. An isolated tornado may be possible, especially in central Oklahoma, but the main risks are high hail and damaging winds.
There will also be a separate risk for a few strong storms in the south during Tuesday’s day, including parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia.
“Our real focus day at this point is Wednesday. We could see a fairly widespread severe weather threat and possibly some high-end severe thunderstorms,” said Bunting.
Wednesday through Wednesday evenings are predicted to be the most active day this week in terms of severe thunderstorms. According to the SPC, there is currently a “moderate risk” for severe weather in eight states in the South. A “Moderate Risk” is a level 4 out of 5 in terms of possible severity. This includes Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee.
The SPC said a “Moderate Risk” means that “widespread severe storms are likely,” and all threats are possible in Wednesday’s intent – tornadoes, large hail at least golf ball size, and intense winds of at least 58 mph.
A morning round of showers and thunderstorms is currently forecast through parts of the Gulf Coast states. Some of these storms can be serious, but the biggest threat increases in the afternoon and lasts until Wednesday evening.
During the afternoon hours, some states, especially in the “Moderate” or “Enhanced” risks, could see supercell thunderstorms emerge. These types of storms are separate, individual storms that are known to produce tornadoes. Not all of these storms will produce tornadoes, but given the favorable environment for tornadoes, it will be possible in some.
There will then be a final series of storms along the cold front that will float up the Mississippi River in the evening and travel east through these southern states. The storms along this front need to be monitored for tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.
“This (nighttime) wave of severe storms is likely to have the greater potential for stronger long-track tornadoes,” said the NWS Birmingham office.
There could be “ a few waves of severe weather starting in the morning, then mid-day, and later in the evening as the cold front comes in, ” Holmes said when discussing the forecast from central Alabama, a region it currently is. in that ‘Moderate Risk’.
On Thursday, the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms will shift to the east coast of the US. The region from central Florida to central Virginia is currently being monitored by the SPC for this risk. Some areas are currently in level 3 out of 5, “Enhanced Risk,” according to the Storm Prediction Center. At this point, the specific timing and threats of the storms are unknown.
Heavy storms typical of the South
Heavy thunderstorms are not uncommon for this part of the country and during this time of the year. Historically, strong tornadoes were most common in northern Mississippi and Alabama in mid-March, closely following this week’s predicted storms.
“The details will play a major role in how bad it gets and where the storms hit. I think it’s important to know it’s a typically early season, in the southeastern US for severe weather, in that storms will move quickly they continue after dark, ‘said Bunting.
“A dangerous aspect of tornadoes in the South is that they can occur in the middle of the night when people are asleep, unlike Tornado Alley storms, which typically become less severe after sunset,” said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.
“It is very important to heed the warning and not wait until you have visual confirmation (of the storm),” said Bunting. “This is the time for people to have a plan in different ways to get the warnings.”
This includes setting up weather alert notifications on your phone. Many weather applications provide alerts based on your location, but your device also allows you to enable notifications for tornado warnings in its settings.